May 29, 2007

AOL Redux:Or Why MySpace is a Piece of Crap


First, a bit of history. I’ve been an entrepreneur in Interweb-related businesses since around 1995. Unlike many of you fresh faced kids, I can remember a once mighty colossus of a business that was called America Online at the time. You may be surprised to know that at one point way back in the early days of this whole phenomenon, America Online was the undisputed monster and dominator of the Interweb business. Then what happened, you ask? America Online was sold to TimeWarner (a scion of the pre-Interweb media biz) for an astronomical sum, changed it’s name to AOL somewhere in there, and the new AOL proceeded to sink like your moms in a big ol’ comfy chair and almost took ol’ TimeWarner down with it. A few people got filthy richer (Steve Case!) and a lot of shareholders lost their shirts. And their pants and socks too.

Fast-forward to 2005. MySpace.com, the undisputed monster and dominator of the new social networking breakfast club is sold to News Corp.- owners of, yup, Fox News and tons of other media-related businesses as well. For $580 mil. MySpace was only two years old at the time.

One of the interesting things about life is that after a while you start seeing the same things occurring in cycles. Fast-forward to 2007. Many of us may have been unwittingly witnessing the death of MySpace for the last 22 months. That’s right. I’m officially placing high odds on MySpace’s eventual demise and consignment to the has-been pile with the likes of AOL.

MySpace is a piece of crap

Yup, you didn’t misread that sub-title. How strange an assertion for someone who just built a music discovery tool that is completely reliant on MySpace, you say? I originally resisted invitations from my friends to join MySpace because I thought it was a fad. And in a way, I was right. When I first joined it was actually a mildly fun experience to link up with friends scattered across the globe and look at hot girl pics. Now, I just check for messages, try to send a cheeky comment every once in a while, maybe post a new song/pic, and I’m out. Why? Because ultimately MySpace is not actually that useful. And I know there are tons of users like me, and even more who won’t use MySpace at all for this very reason. I’m a MySpace user because of the relationships established with my 200-odd “friends” (let’s be honest here, most of them are acquaintances) and because I can post songs. Period. MySpace is not giving me anything more than when I first established my account, and a significant part of that was novelty. You may think that’s okay, but it is the root of their downfall.

At this point MySpace has only two things going for it: tons of (individual) users, and tons of bands. Something like 78 million all told, or at least that’s what they say. At any rate, it’s a huge number. I’m not rich or well-connected, so I couldn’t pony up the millions of dollars needed to create my own social networking site with millions of users that would allow me to validate/invalidate my long-held theories that underlie the Musedot concept. That’s why Musedot is built on MySpace, because that’s where the people are. The theories have been validated, so now I can continue the R&D efforts. This in no way means that Musedot will continue to utilize the MySpace network, and in fact I doubt that’s how things will ultimately turn out.

MySpace Hates Geeks

I don’t think geeks should run the show, they (hey! I consider myself a nerd) have their own weaknesses, like an incomprehension of how less socially inhibited people act in the real world, but for an Interweb company you gotta have at least one hardcore nerd/geek in the top cabal. From the very outset, the actual MySpace infrastructure was a piece of crap. I know because I’m an old man-level web applications developer in the same technologies used to build MySpace and I can tell you my very first application was better than their most recent. And I’m not talking about the “simplicity” of the Web design. Google’s Web design is even more simplistic.

No self-respecting nerd/geek developer with any kind of real power within the company would have allowed that to happen. Contrast the MySpace approach with that of the aforementioned Google, which has invested an ungodly amount of cash into server farms and infrastructure so that every time you go to Google you have a great user experience (meaning fast and accurate). The founders of Google are computer science uber geeks. You do the math. This is extremely important because geeks/nerds are interested in making useful things, while everyone else is interested in either using those things and/or selling them. Case closed.

MySpace’s Business Strategy is Myopic and Moronic

These days, whenever I login to my MySpace account I feel like I’ve been transported into a Disney-new-Times-Square-Fox-Giant-Corporation-advertisement orgy. And that’s because I have. I don’t know what the ads are for, because I never pay attention to them, but I can almost guarantee you that if you turned on the TV you’ll see ads from some of the very same companies. In the almost two years since their acquisition by one of the richest corporations in the history of human civilization, with access to billions in internal financing, the people at MySpace have managed only to turn my “personalized” account into a cacophony of pre-Interweb hucksterism. No doubt this has caused them to rake in considerable money in the short term, enhanced even further by their under-investment in technical infrastructure, but it also undoubtedly aids in blinding them to their impending doom.

Now, I don’t have anything against ads or making money, but I am forthrightly opposed to filthier than filth rich people who don’t- in fact- give a damn about music, controlling the music business. I’ll get back to that in a minute, but for now let me point out the fact that the MySpace “management” is apparently pursuing a retrograde strategy that will prove unsustainable. In the cold focus of history, the ubiquitous “banner advertisements” and related ilk that we see today will be seen as a clumsy attempt to bring previously successful “offline” approaches to a new medium (the Interweb) at a time when it was too immature to support other business models and the people in the “new” marketing industry didn’t really know what the hell they were doing. This too shall pass. Not in the short term, and maybe not even in the medium term, but eventually. In it’s place you’ll see technologies that will enable you, of your own volition, to get what you want when you want it, with no advertising involved. Let’s take music for example (surprise!). It will go something like this: You’ll say to yourself, “Hmmm… it would be nice to have some new music right now but I don’t have anything particular in mind. Let me jump on the Interweb and get some.” You’ll have a selection of various tools that will allow you to find some kick ass new music quickly and efficiently. The relationships involved will be:

You -> Interweb tool -> Download new music

That’s it. No advertising, no Sony, no EMI, none of that. You, technology, music. And the Interweb company that makes the tool will take a cut of your music purchase, because it enabled this to happen. The remainder will go to whoever owns the music, which could be Sony or EMI, or it could be your mom. It doesn’t matter. And everyone will be happy, except perhaps for the shareholders at Sony and EMI. The goon squad also known as the RIAA and which is the militant arm of Sony-BMG-EMI-Universal-TimeWarner, is waging a reactionary shock and awe campaign based on the obviously deluded notion that they can somehow prevent this from happening.

Some quite intelligent people who also think about such things refer to the these types of technologies as Web 2.0. It doesn’t matter what you call it, all that matters is that it’s going to happen. If you understand that you’ll understand that the MySpace business strategy is moronic.

Rupert Murdoch is an old ass man

Like grandpops old. He is also the founder and generalissimo of News Corp. (Did you read that BBC article yet? You really should). Now, I admire and respect Mr. Murdoch’s business acumen, although his tenuous relationship with the truth is a bit off putting, but you can’t get more old school than that. And remember, he is the top level big boss at MySpace. Which brings me to my next point.

You Got Served

The founder and generalissimo of facebook.com is a 23 year old geek (from what I can tell). I don’t actually know much about facebook, yet. Of course I’d heard of it quite a while ago, but never had a reason to join. My friends are on MySpace. However, I do know that facebook is huge, and growing fast… and did I mention that the founder/CEO is a 23 year old geek? Recall what I said earlier about geeks vs. the world (have you ever heard of Bill Gates?). Most importantly, facebook just announced that they are going to open up their site to other software developers and companies as a platform upon which these third parties can build tools that enhance the value of the entire facebook network. I took a brief look at the technical specifications. Very interesting. This is a strategy stolen directly from the Microsoft military doctrine. Anyone remember how well that worked?

The bottom line is that if the MySpacesters don’t mobilize all the troops around a new surge strategy, and post haste, there’s a very high probability they will be served in the form of facebook’s lunch. So far, their response to the facebook announcement has sounded like dribble from the mouths of junior marketing associates.

Let me try to describe to you the basic outlines of this highly probable annihilation. Let’s say mr. Zuckerberg of facebook is a young Mike Tyson, and Rupert Murdoch is an old… president Bush. Not the guy in office now, his Dad. Imagine they meet on a dark bed-stuy street and the old president says something rather raw about Mike’s moms. Close your eyes and imagine what would *probably* happen. Let’s try some other analogies. As way of a rough proxy, imagine that the MySpacesters are going up against a Rommel Panzer division with a wet sock filled with rocks; or they’re bringing a knife to a nuclear war; or… I gotta million of ‘em.

That’s ridiculous!- you say. MySpace has a billion users and is owned by a company with billions of dollars run by a billionaire! Raise your hand if you remember friendster. I used to be on friendster. Not anymore. It’s still around, a pale shadow of its former life as the master dominator of the then newfangled social networking thing. That fall from such a lofty perch happened in the space of less than two years, and the folks eating that tasty lunch were none other than the by now much-maligned-by-me MySpacesters. How long does it take to create an account at any of these Interweb sites? Ten minutes? Think about it.

This is How it Will All Go Down

All of this is important to me, and perhaps to some of you as well, because in the very near future it will finally be possible to put the control of the music business in the hands of the people to whom it rightfully belongs: the artists and the fans. The toolmakers shall rise up and join hands with the people and the crown shall be passed for a 1000 year reign. In this way the formerly poor shall become rich and the once mighty will lose their shirts. And their pants and socks too. As for the size of the business opportunity this entails just take the combined marketing and advertising budgets of the Sony-BMG-EMI-Universal-TimeWarner Axis Powers for starters, and eventually raise that to the 9th power. Did I mention that I make tools and music?

Musedot Is Not the Bomb

No it’s not, and in fact it’s very limited, mainly because it’s a hack of MySpace, but most importantly because the things I’m predicting are only now becoming possible. I’m making all the above predictions without any insistence that either I personally will become a successful toolmaker, or Musedot will be a successful tool. Musedot is not the culmination of anything other than my 12 year quest to determine how one could use Interweb technology to help you find music you would like if only you knew about it. This is just the very early rumblings of the insurgency. I’ve been at it for 12 years and intend to be at it for at least another 12, and if not me than there will be someone to take my place. You’ll see.

Join the revolution!

The General

“The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgment that the statesman and commander have to make is to establish … the kind of war on which they are embarking.”

- Karl von Clausewitz